Torrington, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

583
FXUS61 KALY 191129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
729 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to allow for dry weather today with
temperatures a little warmer compared to yesterday. Warm and
humid weather will return for tomorrow ahead of a cold front.
Some scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be
strong are expected to accompany the frontal passage. Cooler,
drier and less humid weather will return for early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

-Marginal to Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms on Sunday
 ahead of a cold front. A line of thunderstorms is expected
 Sunday late morning through the afternoon hours ahead of the
 front with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.

Discussion:

As of 206 AM EDT...Surface high pressure (around 1021 mb) is
centered over central and eastern Upstate New York early this
morning. IR satellite imagery shows completely clear skies and
surface observations is showing calm winds. This has resulted
good radiational cooling any most areas with start out the day
in the lower to middle 50s (some upper 40s across the highest
terrain). This is one of the cooler morning so far for the month
of July. Some patchy fog could develop in a few spots, but the
short duration of the overnight hours, dry air mass in place and
lack of recent rainfall for many spots should prevent this from
occurring on a widespread basis.

Through the day today, it will continue to be dry as high
pressure slides eastward. Winds will gradually become southerly
by the afternoon hours thanks to the return flow and highs temps
will be a few degrees warmer compared to Friday. While high
terrain areas may stay in the 70s, most valleys will reach the
lower to middle 80s. Skies will be fairly sunny, although some
passing clouds are possible by afternoon. Although dew points
will start out fairly low, they may return into the 60s by late
today thanks to the developing southerly flow.

Surface warm front will be lifting northward across the area
overnight. A few showers are possible across southeastern areas
by the late night hours. In addition, a few showers or even a
rumble of thunder is possible across far northern areas towards
daybreak as well, as the main frontal system starts approaching
from the west. Otherwise, it will be partly to mostly cloudy
tonight with lows in the 60s and humidity on the increase.

Our region will be in a warm sector ahead of an approaching cold
front for Sunday. Models have backed the timing of this boundary
slightly, so it now looks to mainly cross during the afternoon
hours. Ahead of the front, model soundings suggest a good amount
of instability, with SBCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range,
which will be aided by surface dewpoints in the lower 70s.
Although mid level lapse rates may be rather marginal and some
dry air aloft could limit convection, there should be a decent
overlap of instability and shear, as model soundings suggest 0-6
km bulk shear reaching 30-40 kts. CAMs shows a broken line of
thunderstorms ahead of the front passing from west to east from
the late morning through the late afternoon hours. With steep
low level lapse rates and plenty of DCAPE, damaging wind gusts
will be a threat, especially if any linear features develop as
shown in the both the 3km HRRR and NAMNest. SPC has added a
slight risk for southeastern areas, with a marginal in place for
the rest of the area and this makes sense considering the
forecast soundings and hodographs. It should be fairly warm and
muggy ahead of the front with valley highs into the 80s.

Once the front crosses, cooler and less humid air will pour into
the region for Sunday night, with convection ending from west
to east by evening. Dewpoints will be quickly falling thanks to
the drier westerly flow with lows down into the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The start of the long term period looks very quiet, as high
pressure will keep it dry for Monday into at least Tuesday.
Daytime temps will be comfortable in the 70s with low dewpoints.
Good radiational cooling may allow for a cool night on Monday
night with lows down into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Some moderation will start to occur for Wednesday into Friday,
as surface high pressure passing offshore will allow for the low
level flow to return out of the south and temps aloft and
heights start to build. There could be a return to some hot and
humid weather for the late week, with NBM suggesting daytime
highs back into the upper 80s to low 90s for many valley and
urban areas by Thursday into Friday. There could be a need for
some heat-related headlines if this guidance continues to hold.

Next chance for convection may also return by Thursday into
Friday, as approaching upper level disturbance could allow for
some showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. For now, POPs are limited to Slight Chance to
Chance range, but will need to monitor the potential for strong
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at area TAF sites with
south/southwest winds under 10 knots. MVFR ceilings are
forecast to develop after 04Z as a warm front lifts through the
region. While there will be sufficient instability for
convection early Sunday morning, the likelihood of
showers/thunderstorms was too low to include in the TAFs at this
time.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Humphrey